MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to get another take on those U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend and also consider what the next steps might be for diplomacy. We've called Robert Malley for that because he has held several consequential roles advising on U.S. Middle East policy, including as a lead negotiator for the U.S. in the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and as special envoy for Iran under President Biden. He's currently a lecturer at Yale University. Mr. Malley, good morning. Thanks for joining us.
ROBERT MALLEY: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
MARTIN: So after those talks in Islamabad ended, you wrote online, 21 hours was 20 hours too many if the goal was to reiterate a demand Iran had already rejected. And you also said, quote, "it was many hours too few if the goal was to negotiate." Say more about what you meant. Are you saying that the negotiations were always more performative than substantive?
MALLEY: Well, you know, much is still shrouded in secrecy. We don't really know what was exchanged, but just listening to what President Trump has said and what some of the background briefings have indicated, it sounds like the U.S. went in and said, here are our red lines. And the red lines were things that we should have known that Iran would not have accepted it. They didn't accept them before the war. They're not going to accept them now, having to do with no enrichment, dismantling of all the enrichment facilities, among a long list. So if that's the goal and if you're really not going to compromise on those - and who knows? - but if that's the case, then yes, Vice President Vance could have spared himself the trip. If the goal was to try to find some compromise consistent with U.S. interests, then I think there may well have been a way forward.
MARTIN: So, you know, walking out without a deal, announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, could be seen as negotiating tactics.
MALLEY: Again, it's a negotiating tactic if what you have in mind is a negotiation. It's not a tactic if what you have in mind is the surrender of the other side. Iran is battered. Their economy is going to suffer for a very, very long time. They've lost much of their top leadership. It doesn't mean they're going to capitulate. In fact, after all this, the last thing they're going to do is going to be to surrender because then everything that they will have endured will have been in vain. So, yes, a tactic, if you have in mind a real give-and-take. Not a tactic but a dead end, if what you have in mind is surrender.
MARTIN: Based on your previous experience negotiating face-to-face with an Iranian delegation, what next steps would you advise the administration to take? And recognizing, of course, that you probably wouldn't have advised any of the previous steps to this point, but what now?
MALLEY: I mean, I think it is pretty straightforward. It sounds like both sides have some interest in finding an exit ramp. Certainly, the United States does. This is a real drag on the economy. Inflation is going to be skyrocketing again if this continues for a long time. The political fortunes of the president's party are not doing particularly well. So you could see that they have an interest in finding a way out. And so does Iran, for the reason I just said. They cannot sustain this level of economic battering for much longer.
But in order to get a deal, you need to put on the table things that Iran could say are consistent with whatever. They need to save face. They need to save their dignity. They need to have something that shows that they retain some of the assets that they feel are essential to make sure that this war doesn't resume and that the war was not waged in vain. There is room for compromise, in particular, on the nuclear issue, but that has to be the spirit with which the administration approaches it.
MARTIN: And of course, this conflict is intimately related to the war that Israel is waging on its northern border with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. How do you see the talks, tomorrow's talks, between Israel and Lebanon affecting the U.S.-Iran talks, which are presently not ongoing directly but at least sort of looming in the background? How is that part of the triangle affecting the part we've already talked about?
MALLEY: Well, that's one of the issues in dispute, right? I mean, for the U.S. and Israel, the two tracks are completely unrelated and the ceasefire that is still more or less holding with Iran does not affect the Lebanese front. Iran takes a different position, but they don't really have the ability to impose their view. But I think there really is a broader issue here, which is Lebanon is, for the most part, being ignored. I mean, you mentioned it, but most people have their eyes focused on Iran.
And yet, as we know, tens and tens of villages have been destroyed. A million people have had to leave their homes, a number of people died. And at some point, there may be a ceasefire both on Iran and Lebanon. Let's hope. And we will move on, but the people of Lebanon will not be able to move on. I would - I - some of the people in the Gulf and in Iran will not be able to move on. The long-term consequences of this war are going to be felt by many for a very long time.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, just 30 seconds here. Israel's sitting down with Lebanon's government, but does that government really have the power to resolve the conflict?
MALLEY: The government in Lebanon does not have the power to do the one thing Israel insists upon, which is to disarm Hezbollah, which means that those talks are important. They're historic in some respect. They are unlikely to yield that much on the ground.
MARTIN: That's Robert Malley, former U.S. special envoy for Iran, among other consequential roles. Mr. Malley, thank you so much for joining us again.
MALLEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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