A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
All right. Let's size up where things stand in the Middle East this morning, after Israel's attack on Iranian military facilities over the weekend. Iran's military says Israel strikes killed four people. Iran's supreme leader said the strike should neither be exaggerated nor downplayed. He did not urge further retaliation against Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that the barrage of missiles damaged Iran's defensive capabilities and its ability to produce missiles. For more on all this, we've called Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. That's a London-based think tank focused on international affairs. Sanam, what's your sense on where things stand right now in the Middle East?
SANAM VAKIL: Good morning. Thank you for having me. Well, things are certainly tense. We had been waiting for this counterstrike from Israel to Iran for over 3 1/2 weeks. And certainly, this strike has been relatively targeted, although Israel has the military advantage over Iran. As you mentioned, the supreme leader of Iran is vowing some sort of response, but I don't expect that to come right now, with over a week to go to the U.S. election. And Iran, certainly the inferior player, also with its partners, Hezbollah and Hamas, also being militarily degraded - there's not much Iran can do right now.
MARTÍNEZ: When it comes to Gaza, an official briefed on the cease-fire talks told NPR this morning that Israel has not rejected a proposal from Egypt but is waiting for the result of the U.S. election before moving forward. I mean, how much does a cease-fire in Gaza really hang on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the White House?
VAKIL: Well, I think for the people of the Middle East, it shouldn't hang on that, but certainly, Prime Minister Netanyahu wants the backing of whoever wins on November 5. And there's no real clear indication of how Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would actually move things forward in Gaza. Both candidates have been quite ambiguous, Donald Trump suggesting he would like the war to stop but also, at the same time, telling Netanyahu to sort of go for it while he can. And Kamala Harris, of course, is expected to continue the U.S. support for Israel. But at the same time, she's also indicated that the level of violence and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is also unsustainable and just inhumane.
MARTÍNEZ: Well, in three months, either way, the United States will have a brand-new president. So, Sanam, what will that new administration need to contend with when it comes to Iran and Israel in the near future?
VAKIL: Well, as we all know, the landscape of the Middle East has become hugely complex. We have just witnessed this serious escalation between Iran and Israel. But the war in Gaza and the war in Lebanon continue without - and there are renewed discussions over a cease-fire. But what is really needed is that the next U.S. president come in with some strong, coordinated plans to focus on the cease-fire, the return of the hostages, and to be able to provide regular humanitarian aid to the people in Gaza and now around the region.
MARTÍNEZ: You co-wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs titled "Only The Middle East Can Fix The Middle East." What did you mean by that? What does that mean?
VAKIL: Well, this piece really is about two things. First of all, the United States, for quite some time, has been trying to focus on its own national priorities but also geopolitical conflicts with China. And so this piece was calling on Middle Eastern states, American partners in the Middle East, to do more and be more public about what can come next in order to develop a peace and political horizon to bring stability to the region.
MARTÍNEZ: Sanam Vakil is a director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the London-based think tank Chatham House. Thank you very much.
VAKIL: Thank you for having me.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
