New car sales fell off nationally and across the region to end 2025, as buyers hit the brakes on the industry’s post-pandemic rebound.
The slump is projected to continue through the year ahead, with little movement up or down. Used car sales are similarly stalled, according to the Rochester Automobile Dealers Association — pointing to increasing concern over affordability.
“Now you have the highest average transaction price, probably in the history of the new car business, $50,000,” said Brad McAreavy, president of the auto dealers group. “The average monthly payments are almost $800 a month. I mean, what average consumer can afford an $800 a month car payment? You know, that's a house for most people.”
The positive spin is that overall sales numbers are healthy, and predictability can be a good thing. Car dealers don’t do well with market volatility, he said. But there is worry.
“So the industry as a whole right now doesn't favor anyone,” McAreavy said. “Doesn't favor a dealer who's trying to sell that car. Doesn't favor a consumer who's trying to buy the car. Frankly, it doesn't really benefit the manufacturer, either. They don't want to produce cars that a large percentage of the population can't afford.
“I don't think anybody, frankly, wins in the current market that we're in as an industry,” he continued. “It's so, it's concerning. It's concerning.”
This is the environment in which McAreavy and the association find themselves as they prepare to open the 2026 Rochester Auto Show on Friday, Feb. 27, at the Riverside Convention Center. The show has run annually, with limited interruption, since 1908; the past 40 years at the downtown convention center.
“We have as many vehicles as we can get in there,” McAreavy said, estimating more than 150 vehicles will be on display. “And, you know, it's an opportunity for people to come and see what's out there, and see what's in the market.”
Hybrids, both plug-in and not, are the popular option these days, he said. And lower-priced models.
Reasons for the overall higher prices vary. There’s the amount of technology that is going into vehicles these days. Higher interest rates. Tariffs. But McAreavy has been raising alarms for years, and now says financing has become an issue — made more complicated, he said, by the fact that the average car buyer still owes $7,000 on their trade-in.
Still, through the first three quarters, 2025 was on track to be another growth year. The numbers turned in October.
“In Monroe County, we were on a pace for about a 5, 6% increase year over year, which would have gotten us back to pretty close to some of our high-watermark numbers,” he said of pre-pandemic 2019 highs. "And then it all went away.”
Fully electric vehicles, which accounted for 7 to 9% of local new car sales, dropped to 1 or 2% in the fourth quarter after the Trump administration terminated federal incentives. Manufacturers also have tightened up post-pandemic production, better aligning supply with demand and reducing end-of-year discounts that helped push up sales.
Consumer confidence and other factors are likely at play.
The auto show is purposely timed at the end of February to spark spring sales, McAreavy said. Last year, March saw a big spike and was the peak sales month, records show. That was likely fueled by Chevrolet dealers. The are more Chey dealers than any other brand in Monroe County, controlling 20% of the market. And in March and April 2025, Chevrolet saw a big jump in sales nationwide, McAreavy said. Other brands like Ford, Hyundai and Subaru also saw double-digit bumps.
“I don’t expect March 2026 to be as good as March 2025,” McAreavy said. “Although this weather is likely delaying some buyers. When it breaks, we may see a jump in sales.”
