LEILA FADEL, HOST:
For more on what's next in Iran, I'm joined by Richard Nephew. He was deputy special envoy for Iran in the Biden administration. He also worked on the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran as the lead sanctions expert for U.S. negotiators. Good morning, and welcome back to the program.
RICHARD NEPHEW: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
FADEL: So a statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard broadcast on state media said, quote, the region's oil and gas exports will either be available to everyone or to no one. That's being taken as a reference to shutting down other trade routes like the Red Sea, beyond the Strait of Hormuz. How do you think Iran is weighing its next move?
NEPHEW: Yeah. This has been Iran's position for quite some time. They were saying this in response to sanctions policies the United States had, you know, a decade ago. So, you know, obviously, military attacks and a blockade are going to be part of it. I think their perspective is that they've got the military force to be able to target beyond just the Persian Gulf and the straits. They've been signaling that really for months now. And I think they're going to try and make sure that all the countries in the region understand that there is no way out other than some kind of deal that allows them to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, which is now a strategic objective.
FADEL: Now, they're not the only ones threatening. In an interview that aired Tuesday on Fox News, President Trump promised to expand attacks on Iran. Let's listen to what he said.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Next week, it gets really bad for them because next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges. We're going to knock out all their power plants. We're going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.
FADEL: Why does Iran keep pushing even in the face of a threat like that - threats we've also heard before from the president?
NEPHEW: Well, I think two reasons. One - I don't think that they believe the president. I think that over the course of the last several months, he's made very big threats, and then he's backed down. And he's backed down, kind of making up reasons to do so and saying there's some new diplomatic initiative. So I think they think he's just going to do it again.
And then I think the second big thing is they have seen that when they've backed down in the past, it's not resulted in anything positive. And I think the new Iranian leadership, which despite the president's words on this is far more radical, far more aggressive - these are the folks who believed all along that anytime Iran's been provoked, it needs to attack and be very aggressive. So I think the Iranian leadership perspective is, we don't trust this guy. We don't believe this guy. We actually think we can make him down if we use force. The real problem is that's also the American position right now.
FADEL: So what does that mean, then, if they're both kind of playing the same game?
NEPHEW: I think basically this just drives us into a policy cul-de-sac. I think both the American and the Iranian governments don't have enough military capacity to get what they want altogether. The Iranians are not in a position to totally take control of the strait, although they can threaten access. The United States, at the current level of military operations, is unable to stop Iran from attacking. And so basically, it's going to drive both sides back to talking, something that both Trump and Iranian lead negotiator Ghalibaf have talked about in recent days.
FADEL: But what will get them back to talking? I mean, 'cause this is very deadly. An Iranian government spokesperson said more than 30 civilians were killed just in recent U.S. attacks. CENTCOM said Iran has killed nearly a dozen civilian crew members on ships in the strait, so deadly for civilians. What do you think it will take for both sides to get back to negotiating?
NEPHEW: Basically, I think that both sides, as cynical as it is, need to try and demonstrate to the other that they're not afraid, that they're willing to use force, that they're willing to use force in extraordinary ways. I said, you know, yesterday, talking to some folks, I think five to six days' worth of U.S. military operations will be enough for the president to declare, look, I've scared them. Look, I've demonstrated what we're willing to do.
I think the Iranians, after a few more attacks on ships, will be willing to say, look, we've demonstrated that we can do this as well. And then it'll be back to the table. But the problem is that even though both sides may come back to the table, it's really hard to see a long-term solution to any of this. So I kind of expect this situation to be our new normal, at least for quite some time.
FADEL: If you were advising the U.S. team, what would your recommendations be to get beyond - I mean, they've discarded the memorandum of understanding pretty openly at this point, but to get beyond that and to a new agreement?
NEPHEW: Well, I would first of all question whether or not a new agreement's our best path forward. I think the best path forward for the United States is to ensure that the strait is open and reasonably free for ships to be able to operate through - although Iran's going to try and exert pressure all along - to maintain pressure on the Iranian system and, frankly, force the Iranian leadership to confront the deep challenges they've got, you know, domestically. They still can't deliver water to Tehran. They still can't deliver electricity or gas. And to, frankly, see whether or not this Iranian leadership can be waited out. I think all other options at some point provide more relief to the Iranians, and to the IRGC in particular, than would be wise and won't solve fundamental problems.
FADEL: Richard Nephew. He served in the Biden administration - worked on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He's now at Columbia University. Thank you for your time.
NEPHEW: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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