New York’s gubernatorial election isn’t until November 2026, but the race is already starting to shape up. We’re beginning to get our first idea of how New Yorkers across the state are feeling about it, as Siena has released its first poll since Rep. Elise Stefanik officially declared her challenge to Governor Kathy Hochul.
In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans almost 2-to-1, it’s no surprise to Siena pollster Steven Greenberg that Governor Hochul maintains a strong early lead over North Country Rep. Elise Stefanik.
Hochul is up 52% to Stefanik’s 32%. In a similar poll from September, Hochul also sat at 52%, but Stefanik was at 27%. Greenberg said it’s important to understand the perspective.
“There’s actually more independent voters in New York than there are Republicans, and that's why no Republican has won in New York State statewide since George Pataki won his third term for governor back in 2002," he said. "But, that said three years ago, then-Congressman Lee Zeldin came within six points of upsetting Hochul."
Job approval and favorability ratings for Hochul are both down five points since the last Siena poll, but overall up compared to her record lows last year.
“Now, 43% of voters view Hochul favorably, a small plurality, 45% view her unfavorably," said Greenberg. "Flip it from September, when it was 45% favorable, 42% unfavorable, and her job approval rating remains in positive territory. Right now, 52% of New Yorkers approve of the job that Hochul is doing as governor.”
There is of course another person vying for the governor’s office, Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado. The former congressman who Hochul appointed to be her number two nearly three years ago announced his campaign back in June.
The latest Siena poll pegs him at just 16% in a primary challenge against Hochul. Although Greenberg said it’s not for a difference in policy.
“20% of New York voters say they view Delgado favorably, 20% view him unfavorably. 60% of voters have either never heard of Antonio Delgado or don't know enough about him to have an opinion," he said. "Not surprising for an office like lieutenant governor.”
Despite the primary and general leads for Hochul, nearly half of voters polled still preferred “someone else” to be governor. It was over half in September.
“Generally speaking, elections are a referendum on the incumbent. So yes, you know, if Stefanik is the Republican candidate, yes, it will be a Hochul versus Stefanik. But for a lot of voters, it's like it's a referendum on Hochul," Greenberg said. "'Has she done a good job? I'll vote for her.' 'I don't think she's done a good job. I'm going to vote against her.'”
The full poll from Siena Research Institute can be found here.
