An above-average number of storms are expected during this year's Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center warn. Tens of millions of people live in areas at risk for dangerous hurricane-related wind damage, storm surge and flooding from heavy rain.
Forecasters expect 13 to 19 storms to form in the Atlantic between June 1 and November 30. That is slightly higher than the average of 14 storms that usually occur over the course of a hurricane season. Five of the last 6 years have had an above-average number of storms.
Of those storms, 6 are expected to be full-blown hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 of those are forecast to be major hurricanes. Major hurricanes have winds powerful enough to topple trees, damage roofs and destroy mobile homes. The rest are forecast to be weaker tropical storms, which nonetheless have the potential to cause deadly flooding far from the coastline.
"Everything's in place for an above-average season," said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, which oversees the National Hurricane Center, at an event to announce the forecast.
Not all hurricanes that form over the ocean make landfall. But those that do, together, kill dozens of people on average each year in the U.S., and most of those deaths are from flooding, storm surge and other water-related hazards.
"Water's the biggest killer with these things," Graham said. "I've seen so many cases where the inland flooding causes more fatalities than on the coast." Last year, Hurricane Helene killed more than 200 people after it came ashore in Florida and barreled up into Georgia, North Carolina and parts of Appalachia, dumping catastrophic amounts of rain and washing away entire neighborhoods.
In 2022, catastrophic storm surge from Hurricane Ian caused more than $100 billion in damage in Florida and killed more than 150 people. And relatively weak storms in 2017 and 2018 also caused massive flood damage, including hundreds of miles inland.
Climate change means new hurricane threats
Climate change makes powerful storms more common, in part because sea surface temperatures are abnormally high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes form, and in the Gulf of Mexico where many hurricanes gather strength before hitting land.
The oceans absorb most of the extra heat that humans trap in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Abnormally warm ocean temperatures are the main reason forecasters expect an above-average number of storms this year, Graham said.
And a warmer atmosphere can also hold more moisture, which can lead to catastrophic flooding from heavy rain.
"We are seeing heavier rainfall," said Graham. "We're hearing from more and more communities that's like 'Wow, I've lived here my whole life. I've never seen rainfall rates like that."
FEMA was not present at the annual hurricane forecast announcement
Usually, top federal emergency officials attend the hurricane forecast announcement in May. A high-ranking official from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has been on hand at every hurricane outlook briefing for at least the last decade, to share tips about how members of the public should prepare for hurricane season.
But no official from FEMA spoke at today's announcement, which was held in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, not far from where Hurricane Katrina made landfall nearly 20 years ago. FEMA did not respond to questions from NPR about the agency's absence from the event.
"That's very alarming that you don't have the nation's leading emergency management agency telling people that they should be taking the steps now to prepare," says Jeremy Edwards, a former FEMA spokesperson who previously attended hurricane forecast announcements in that role. "I'm personally a little perplexed about why you wouldn't take those opportunities. It costs you nothing to try to help people get prepared. It costs you nothing to try to help save lives."
Instead, weather officials shared a variety of preparedness advice, including to review your evacuation plan if you live on the coast, understand whether local rivers are likely to flood, look into getting flood insurance and make sure to use electrical generators in safe ways.
"The best way to thrive during a disaster is by making critical decisions beforehand," said Cynthia Lee-Sheg, the president of Jefferson Parish.
In the past, FEMA officials have also exhorted people who live in hurricane-prone areas to make a detailed evacuation plan that included what they would do with pets, how they would bring medical devices and medications, and how they might help elderly or disabled loved ones get to safety.
For those who live in inland areas, in the past FEMA officials have recommended making a plan for sheltering in place without electricity. Each year, people in the U.S. die in the days after hurricanes, when electricity and water are disrupted and roads are swept away or blocked by debris, making it impossible for emergency vehicles to get through.
President Trump has said that FEMA, as it currently exists, should be eliminated, and has appointed a council responsible for recommending changes to the agency. The Trump administration abruptly replaced the acting head of FEMA with just weeks to go before the beginning of hurricane season, and replaced him with a Department of Homeland Security official with no emergency management experience.
In response to allegations that FEMA is not prepared for hurricane season, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said this week that the new FEMA leaders "have been actively engaged in making sure that we are pre-deploying resources, staff, equipment out in anticipation of hurricane season," and "making sure that we are adequately prepared for this season ahead of us."
Copyright 2025 NPR
