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Latest Siena Poll has Katko-Balter race as a dead heat

Oct 26, 2020

One of the most competitive congressional races in the country remains a dead heat, according to a new poll.

The poll by Siena College Research Institute shows that incumbent Republican Congressman John Katko and Democratic challenger Dana Balter each have the support of 45% of voters, with 5% supporting Working Families Party candidate Steven Williams, and 4% undecided.

While Williams went on the ballot as a placeholder, and he's actually supporting Balter.

Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said the rematch for this Central New York seat, which includes Wayne County, may be even closer than Katko's win two years ago.

“They say that sequels are never as good as the originals but in NY-24, the rematch looks like it may be even closer than Katko’s 53-47 percent win two years ago,” said Greenberg. “In this district with similar numbers of Democrats and Republicans, both candidates hold more than three-quarters of voters from their party, while Katko holds a slim four-point lead with independents."

Greenberg notes that one unknown factor here is how many people will vote for Williams, and if those votes for a third party candidate hurt Balter or Katko more.

Williams unsuccessfully tried to get his name off the ballot.

Greenberg says, at this point, it is possible that Katko or Balter could win this race without 50% of the vote.