For the first time in Monroe County, Republicans are not one of the two largest voting blocs.
Those registering with “no party” now outnumber enrolled Republicans in the latest party enrollment statistics released this week. The county continues to lean strongly Democrat.
Steadily declining GOP enrollment over the past two decades is partly to blame. But voters — city of Rochester residents, in particular — increasingly are shunning any party affiliation.
“It's absolutely been happening over the last several years, where the largest growing party is ‘blank,’” said Jackie Ortiz, the county’s Democratic elections commissioner.
That growth has been particularly notable in the past couple months, she said. And officials expect the trend to continue.
Friday is the deadline to mail in a voter registration, or register in person or online and be eligible to cast a ballot in next month's mid-term elections. Deadlines to change the address on your registration and to request an absentee ballot are Oct. 19 and 24, respectively. Early voting begins Oct. 29.
In this shifting enrollment landscape, Democrats, too, have reason for concern. Though still accounting for the vast majority of registered voters, enrollment dipped in the latest report after years of growth.
Unaffiliated Monroe County voters outnumbered enrolled Republicans by nearly 1,000 in the latest report, and account for 26% of the electorate. Democrats account for 42%, records show.
“As it relates to primaries, it is a huge concern,” said David Dunning, chairman of Monroe County Republicans.
The shift leaves thousands out of the primary process, which — given Democrats’ lopsided advantages in many districts — effectively decide the election. But does the shift involve more moderate voters leaving the major parties, or the more radical, or both?
“We just don't know what their thought process is,” Dunning said. “It's really, really difficult to tell.”
Former-Gov. Andrew Cuomo's 2020 push to restrict third party ballot lines likely contributed to the "no party" shift, of late. But limited voter participation early on makes it hard to gauge what messages are resonating with the electorate at large.
Listen: Will state rules changes for third parties affect voters choices?
“It does create, for us, some uncertainty on where people are, and where their political views lie,” Dunning said. “And I think this is happening largely because people have just become disenfranchised with the political scene altogether."
Former state Sen. Joseph Robach, R-Greece, is less concerned about the enrollment change, seeing various reasons for people seeking more independence. The one-time Democrat is convinced that the general public is more aligned with Republican policies today — which can be more clearly defined when presented in contrast to Democrats’ one-party rule in Albany.
“I don't think it should be so much about party, so it doesn't upset me,” he said. “Would I like it if more people were registered Republican? Sure. But if independent people are able to establish that they will vote for the policies they like best, what it really comes down to, to me, is outcome.
“And clearly,” he continued, “New York state is at a crossroads.”
Ortiz speculated that "primary designations might actually need to change” to accommodate those voters left out of the process. But Robach is taking a wait-and-see approach.
“Pendulums swing,” he said, “back and forth.”
